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    Predicting Nonpareil Almond Damage in Kern County*
    For all data entry fields, you must enter values between the minimum and maximum values listed. The average (mean values) for the data set are listed. The minimum Nonpareil damage is 0.46% and the maximum Nonpareil damage possible is 29.87%.
    Hit the "tab" key to advance to the next data entry field.
    Percent Previous NOW Damage Mean = 1.5%; (Range 0 - 19.0%)
    PTB Damage Mean = 0.3%; (Range 0 - 9.2%)
    Ground Mummies per Tree Mean = 4.9; (Range 0 - 43.7)
    Tree Mummies per Tree Mean = 1.0; (Range 0 - 69.7)
    Standardized Harvest Percentile
    Choose a value from below**
    0 - 2.5% = -2.6
    2.6% - 25% = -0.6
    50% = 0
    51 - 75% = 0.7
    76 - 97.5% = 1.8
    98 - 100% = 2.6
    Distance from Center to Nearest Pistachios Mean = 8,656; (Range 550 - 12,000)***
    Predicted Damage Based on sample data; the average damage in Kern County was 1.77% based on 1,279 40-acre plots in 2004 - 2006.

     

    Harvest started and finished on different dates over the four-year study, consequently the calendar date was not used to determine the contribution of harvest time to navel orangeworm damage. The data were standardized and the harvest interval (first to last loads shaken) was divided into 6 periods. Period I was the first 2.5% of the harvest loads, Period II was 2.6% - 25% of the, Period III was 26% - 50% of the loads, Period IV was 51% - 75% of the loads, Period V was 76 - 97.5% of the loads, and Period VI was the final 2.5% of the loads shaken. Period III is the midpoint, when half the loads remain to be shaken, and its assigned value is 0. The earlier harvests have a negative value, and later harvests (after 50%) have a positive value.
    Footnotes:
    * A teaching tool based on the Kern County dataset of Bradley Higbee, Paramount Farming Company. Statistical analysis by Joel P. Siegel, USDA/ARS and Bradley Higbee, Paramount Farming Company. Source: Higbee, B.S. and Siegel, J.P. New navel orangeworm sanitation standards could reduce almond damage. Calif. Agricul. 63 (1):24 - 28. 2009.

    ** Harvest risk is based on the comparison to the mean harvest date for the year. The mean date, when half the plots have been harvested, is entered as 0. Harvest before the mean has negative values, which reduce damage, and harvest after the mean has positive values, indicating increased damage compared to the mean date. All other parameters being equal and set to the means, the earliest harvested plots have a predicted damage of 1.36%, while the last harvested plots have a predicted damage of 2.31%. There is almost a 1% spread between the earliest and latest harvested plots, and the interval between the first harvested plot and last harvested plot is 27 days.

    *** In this study each study block was 40 acres. We calculated the distance from the center of each almond block to the margin of the nearest pistachio block. A pistachio block adjacent to the almond block has a value of 550 feet, and the maximum distance that can be entered in this study is 12,000 feet even if distance goes to 20,000.