















































Predicting Nonpareil
Almond Damage in Kern County*





















For
all data entry fields, you must enter values between the minimum and maximum
values listed. The average (mean values) for the data set are listed. The
minimum Nonpareil damage is 0.46% and the maximum Nonpareil damage possible
is 29.87%.














Hit the "tab" key
to advance to the next data entry field.















Percent Previous NOW Damage



Mean = 1.5%; (Range 0 
19.0%)















PTB Damage



Mean = 0.3%; (Range 0 
9.2%)















Ground Mummies per Tree



Mean = 4.9; (Range 0 
43.7)















Tree Mummies per Tree



Mean = 1.0; (Range 0 
69.7)















Standardized Harvest Percentile








Choose a value from below**







0  2.5% =

2.6










2.6%  25% =

0.6





50% =

0










51  75% =

0.7










76  97.5% =

1.8










98  100% =

2.6





















Distance from Center to Nearest Pistachios



Mean = 8,656; (Range 550
 12,000)***















Predicted Damage



Based on
sample data; the average damage in Kern County was 1.77% based on 1,279
40acre plots in 2004  2006.
































Harvest
started and finished on different dates over the fouryear study,
consequently the calendar date was not used to determine the contribution of
harvest time to navel orangeworm damage. The data were standardized and the
harvest interval (first to last loads shaken) was divided into 6 periods.
Period I was the first 2.5% of the harvest loads, Period II was 2.6%  25% of
the, Period III was 26%  50% of the loads, Period IV was 51%  75% of the
loads, Period V was 76  97.5% of the loads, and Period VI was the final 2.5%
of the loads shaken. Period III is the midpoint, when half the loads remain
to be shaken, and its assigned value is 0. The earlier harvests have a
negative value, and later harvests (after 50%) have a positive value.














Footnotes:




*
A teaching tool based on the Kern County dataset of Bradley Higbee, Paramount
Farming Company. Statistical analysis by Joel P. Siegel, USDA/ARS and Bradley
Higbee, Paramount Farming Company. Source: Higbee, B.S. and Siegel, J.P. New
navel orangeworm sanitation standards could reduce almond damage. Calif.
Agricul. 63 (1):24  28. 2009.
** Harvest risk is based on the comparison to the mean harvest date for the
year. The mean date, when half the plots have been harvested, is entered as
0. Harvest before the mean has negative values, which reduce damage, and
harvest after the mean has positive values, indicating increased damage
compared to the mean date. All other
parameters being equal and set to the means, the earliest harvested plots
have a predicted damage of 1.36%, while the last harvested plots have a
predicted damage of 2.31%. There is almost a 1% spread between the earliest
and latest harvested plots, and the interval between the first harvested plot
and last harvested plot is 27 days.
*** In this study each study block was 40 acres. We calculated the distance
from the center of each almond block to the margin of the nearest pistachio
block. A pistachio block adjacent to the almond block has a value of 550
feet, and the maximum distance that can be entered in this study is 12,000
feet even if distance goes to 20,000.


